Check the thread in my Sig for more info.
As RiverRat said colder temps=worse mpg. It's a two fold dilemma, even with identical drives colder weather lowers mpgs. Also colder weather usually means habits that bring worse fuel economy, idling to warm up the car, inclement weather, sitting bc of accidents, etc.
Also knowing how you track your economy helps.
My economy has decreased slightly this month, this tank alone looks to have dropped a few mpg since the last tank (i fill up weekly btw). My drive has not changed much but trips have.
BTW one stint of stop and go traffic or one long WOT or warming up the car 1 mourning can account for
that variance if you didn't do the same thing the tank before.
It's probably nothing to worry about just the nature of the beast. Make sure your oil level and tire pressure are ok and keep logging your mileage. And no a proper oil change will not result in worse mpg, quality synthetics are actually marginally effective at yielding better fuel economy (barely noticeable, if that).